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IBBC CAPITAL · SYNTHETIC-SAMPLE-01

A project decision package, with evidence visible

SYNTHETIC DATA · NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. Static snapshot from a saved local fixture workflow. No real project, client engagement, professional approval or funding offer. The temporary database was reopened to verify persistence, then removed. This page does not access a live account.

The useful outcome: conditions for the next decision

Proposed decision: request evidence and specialist review before any real capital commitment. Positive model results alone do not establish investability. Fixture task acceptance confirms a test workflow step, not resolution of the commercial gaps below.

Owner: prepare missing rights, cost and revenue evidence. Investor: check fit and downside against its own criteria. IBBC Capital: show assumptions, unresolved questions and accountable next steps. This common project example is not a specialist market-entry case.

Fixture criteria and observed results

CriterionRuleObserved
C1Inspect base and downside NPV relative to zeroAll three saved NPVs are negative at the assumed 12% discount rate; re-examine assumptions. This is not an investment recommendation.
C2No real commitment before evidence verificationUnresolved: rights, permits and commercial facts are unverified

The funding question

Base case initial outflow is 21.200 USD millions: CAPEX 20.000 plus initial working capital, derived from year-0 FCFF. Funding sources, debt/equity split and financing capacity are unknown; no debt service or DSCR is modelled.

Three scenarios, one disclosed model

ScenarioNPV (USD m)IRR (%)Payback (years)
Base-3.2368.3116.813
Downside-11.913-2.242Unavailable — see reason below
Upside-0.34911.6175.947

IRR is stored as a decimal and displayed as a percentage. Payback is undiscounted; NPV discounts annual unlevered FCFF including year 0. No terminal/salvage value or debt; tax is an assumption, not legal advice. A dash means unavailable; inspect the calculation reasons below.

Assumptions are synthetic, not verified business facts

InputBaseDownsideUpside
Initial CAPEX (USD m)20.00022.00020.000
Year-1 revenue (USD m)12.00010.20013.200
Variable cost (% revenue)50.00055.00050.000
Year-1 fixed OPEX (USD m)2.4002.4002.400
Revenue growth (%/year)3.0003.0003.000
Fixed-cost inflation (%/year)3.0003.0003.000
Annual maintenance (USD m)0.4000.4000.400
Working capital (% revenue)10.00010.00010.000
Tax assumption (%)20.00020.00020.000
Discount rate (%)12.00012.00012.000
Model years10.00010.00010.000
End-period WC releaseNoNoNo

Saved work and separate review

TaskStatusEvidence refPreparer aliasReviewer aliasReview source revision
readinessACCEPTED · fixturesample-brief-v1 v1PREPARER-FIXTUREREVIEWER-FIXTURE3
analysisACCEPTED · fixturesample-model-v1 v1PREPARER-FIXTUREREVIEWER-FIXTURE5
deliveryACCEPTED · fixturesample-report-v1 v1PREPARER-FIXTUREREVIEWER-FIXTURE7

All evidence references and actors are fixtures. Separate user IDs were checked internally before export; aliases replace account identifiers. Acceptance is not a verification of rights, permits or commercial forecasts.

Open gaps remain open

Rights and permits

No real documents; obtain appropriate evidence before real commitment.

Evidence: unavailable · next gate: request and review

Fixture gap G1 · next role: owner-fixture

Decision condition: blocks real commitment

Revenue and cost support

No contracts or quotations; validate the assumptions.

Evidence: unavailable · next gate: request and review

Fixture gap G2 · next role: analyst-fixture

Decision condition: requires commercial validation

Funding and specialist review

No financing mandate, debt model or legal/tax opinion.

Evidence: unavailable · next gate: request and review

Fixture gap G3 · next role: reviewer-fixture

Decision condition: no financing conclusion

Inspect calculations and missing-result reasons

Base · calculations and reasons

NPV -3.2357 USD m discounts FCFF at assumed 12% over 10 years including initial outflow 21.2000. No terminal/salvage value, debt or legal tax opinion.

IRR 8.3111% makes NPV approximately zero; one sign change. Unlevered project return, not guaranteed.

Payback 6.8131 years is the first cumulative crossing of zero, with even annual inflow interpolation; undiscounted and no guarantee later cash stays positive.

Annual formulas and explanations

Year 0: FCFF -21.2000 USD m. EBIT 0.0000 - tax 0.0000 + depreciation 0.0000 - CAPEX 20.0000 - change in WC 1.2000 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 1: FCFF 2.8800 USD m. EBIT 1.6000 - tax 0.3200 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0000 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 2: FCFF 2.9304 USD m. EBIT 1.7080 - tax 0.3416 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0360 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 3: FCFF 3.0183 USD m. EBIT 1.8192 - tax 0.3638 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0371 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 4: FCFF 3.1089 USD m. EBIT 1.9338 - tax 0.3868 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0382 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 5: FCFF 3.2021 USD m. EBIT 2.0518 - tax 0.4104 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0393 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 6: FCFF 3.2982 USD m. EBIT 2.1734 - tax 0.4347 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0405 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 7: FCFF 3.3971 USD m. EBIT 2.2986 - tax 0.4597 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0417 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 8: FCFF 3.4991 USD m. EBIT 2.4275 - tax 0.4855 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0430 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 9: FCFF 3.6040 USD m. EBIT 2.5604 - tax 0.5121 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0443 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 10: FCFF 3.7121 USD m. EBIT 2.6972 - tax 0.5394 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0456 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=12×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

YearRevenue (USD m)OPEX (USD m)FCFF (USD m)
00.0000.000-21.200
112.0008.4002.880
212.3608.6522.930
312.7318.9123.018
413.1139.1793.109
513.5069.4543.202
613.9119.7383.298
714.32910.0303.397
814.75810.3313.499
915.20110.6413.604
1015.65710.9603.712
Downside · calculations and reasons

NPV -11.9132 USD m discounts FCFF at assumed 12% over 10 years including initial outflow 23.0200. No terminal/salvage value, debt or legal tax opinion.

IRR -2.2418% makes NPV approximately zero; one sign change. Unlevered project return, not guaranteed.

No payback within 10 years: initial outflow 23.0200, cumulative final flow -2.8482 USD m; cumulative flow never reached zero. Later recovery remains unknown.

Annual formulas and explanations

Year 0: FCFF -23.0200 USD m. EBIT 0.0000 - tax 0.0000 + depreciation 0.0000 - CAPEX 22.0000 - change in WC 1.0200 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 1: FCFF 1.7900 USD m. EBIT -0.0100 - tax 0.0000 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0000 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 2: FCFF 1.8140 USD m. EBIT 0.0557 - tax 0.0111 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0306 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 3: FCFF 1.8672 USD m. EBIT 0.1234 - tax 0.0247 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0315 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 4: FCFF 1.9220 USD m. EBIT 0.1931 - tax 0.0386 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0325 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 5: FCFF 1.9785 USD m. EBIT 0.2649 - tax 0.0530 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0334 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 6: FCFF 2.0366 USD m. EBIT 0.3388 - tax 0.0678 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0344 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 7: FCFF 2.0965 USD m. EBIT 0.4150 - tax 0.0830 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0355 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 8: FCFF 2.1582 USD m. EBIT 0.4934 - tax 0.0987 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0365 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 9: FCFF 2.2217 USD m. EBIT 0.5742 - tax 0.1148 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0376 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 10: FCFF 2.2872 USD m. EBIT 0.6575 - tax 0.1315 + depreciation 2.2000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0388 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=10.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×55/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

YearRevenue (USD m)OPEX (USD m)FCFF (USD m)
00.0000.000-23.020
110.2008.0101.790
210.5068.2501.814
310.8218.4981.867
411.1468.7531.922
511.4809.0151.978
611.8259.2862.037
712.1799.5642.097
812.5459.8512.158
912.92110.1472.222
1013.30910.4512.287
Upside · calculations and reasons

NPV -0.3490 USD m discounts FCFF at assumed 12% over 10 years including initial outflow 21.3200. No terminal/salvage value, debt or legal tax opinion.

IRR 11.6175% makes NPV approximately zero; one sign change. Unlevered project return, not guaranteed.

Payback 5.9471 years is the first cumulative crossing of zero, with even annual inflow interpolation; undiscounted and no guarantee later cash stays positive.

Annual formulas and explanations

Year 0: FCFF -21.3200 USD m. EBIT 0.0000 - tax 0.0000 + depreciation 0.0000 - CAPEX 20.0000 - change in WC 1.3200 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 1: FCFF 3.3600 USD m. EBIT 2.2000 - tax 0.4400 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0000 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 2: FCFF 3.4212 USD m. EBIT 2.3260 - tax 0.4652 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0396 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 3: FCFF 3.5238 USD m. EBIT 2.4558 - tax 0.4912 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0408 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 4: FCFF 3.6296 USD m. EBIT 2.5895 - tax 0.5179 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0420 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 5: FCFF 3.7384 USD m. EBIT 2.7271 - tax 0.5454 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0433 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 6: FCFF 3.8506 USD m. EBIT 2.8690 - tax 0.5738 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0446 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 7: FCFF 3.9661 USD m. EBIT 3.0150 - tax 0.6030 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0459 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 8: FCFF 4.0851 USD m. EBIT 3.1655 - tax 0.6331 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0473 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 9: FCFF 4.2076 USD m. EBIT 3.3204 - tax 0.6641 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0487 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

Year 10: FCFF 4.3339 USD m. EBIT 3.4800 - tax 0.6960 + depreciation 2.0000 - CAPEX 0.4000 - change in WC 0.0502 + recovery 0.0000. At year 0 use only -CAPEX -WC. Tax=max(EBIT,0)×20%; no loss carryforward. Revenue=13.2×(1+3/100)^(year-1); OPEX=revenue×50/100+2.4×(1+3/100)^(year-1).

YearRevenue (USD m)OPEX (USD m)FCFF (USD m)
00.0000.000-21.320
113.2009.0003.360
213.5969.2703.421
314.0049.5483.524
414.4249.8353.630
514.85710.1303.738
615.30210.4333.851
715.76110.7463.966
816.23411.0694.085
916.72111.4014.208
1017.22311.7434.334

Risk management and review gates

Illustrative risk appendix, not saved or accepted in the workflow database. All risks remain OPEN; task acceptance does not close risks. Likelihood, impact and residual risk are unassessed. Proposed controls are not implemented or verified; owners are fixture roles, not actual appointments.

R1 · Rights, permits and disclosure

OPEN · likelihood / impact / residual risk: unassessed

Missing evidence: No real rights, permits or disclosure authorisation.

Proposed control: Request document index and qualified verification; restrict disclosure until authorised.

Proposed role: Owner role; qualified legal reviewer

Review / stop condition: Do not make a real capital commitment while authority is unresolved.

Condition for considering closure: Relevant rights and authority independently assessed, with scope and date recorded.

R2 · Demand, revenue and cost assumptions

OPEN · likelihood / impact / residual risk: unassessed

Missing evidence: No demand study, customer contract or cost quote; all model figures synthetic.

Proposed control: Validate sources and compare downside assumptions before revising the model.

Proposed role: Analyst role; separate reviewer

Review / stop condition: Re-review if material revenue/cost evidence changes; all saved NPVs currently negative at 12%.

Condition for considering closure: Evidence-backed assumptions and approved revision; commercial risk can remain.

R3 · Funding, liquidity and refinancing

OPEN · likelihood / impact / residual risk: unassessed

Missing evidence: No funding sources, cash commitments, debt schedule or lender conditions.

Proposed control: Prepare funding-needs timing and liquidity stress questions; obtain a separate validated debt model if needed.

Proposed role: Owner finance role; authorised funding reviewer

Review / stop condition: Do not infer funding capacity or DSCR from this unlevered model.

Condition for considering closure: Funding sources, timing and terms assessed by authorised parties; no outcome guarantee.

R4 · Delivery, schedule and dependencies

OPEN · likelihood / impact / residual risk: unassessed

Missing evidence: No verified contractor, procurement plan or delivery evidence.

Proposed control: Map dependencies, owners and acceptance evidence; review cost/schedule changes together.

Proposed role: Project coordination role; separate acceptance role

Review / stop condition: Re-review delayed milestones or scope changes before relying on an old report.

Condition for considering closure: Dependencies and acceptance evidence reviewed; unresolved items explicitly carried forward.

R5 · Model, access and decision governance

OPEN · likelihood / impact / residual risk: unassessed

Missing evidence: Synthetic model only; no professional review or production security assessment.

Proposed control: Keep source revisions, independent review, access checks and immutable report snapshots; test recovery.

Proposed role: Model preparer; reviewer; local operator roles

Review / stop condition: Request re-review when assumptions or source revision change; do not treat fixture approval as real approval.

Condition for considering closure: Documented review and scope-specific security controls verified; residual risk reassessed.

These are decision conditions for this sample, not an automated block on real-world transactions.

Appendix risk-demo-1 · source RISK_SPEC.json

SHA-256 (risk specification file): 7ac04e151a1fbdf9d05cc561952a263f2b168ed95d2dbd9ccccfe209c4b2702a

Provenance and limits

Fixture sample-report-demo-1; account sample MF-DEMO-001; report v1; report source revision 11; exported case revision 12; model mf-fcff-python-1.1.0.

Snapshot generated (UTC): 2026-10-23T11:25:01.011286+00:00

Workflow report timestamp (UTC): 2026-10-23T11:30:11+00:00

SHA-256 (canonical sanitised report JSON, UTF-8, sorted keys): 4ae2af46faed1438b55a0a4a7b649f45fc03498516036bb17e6c1822f485a991

Persistence check: new database connection returned the identical internal report hash. Temporary DB removed; only a sanitised static snapshot remains. No live account synchronisation, real client records, professional acceptance or funding outcome is claimed.

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